Hope everyone is having a happy spring. After searching my previous posts, I seem to be a healthy 16-6 in UFC picks since November 2002. I've already made my plays so if this input helps anyone else, hey...that's what this forum is for.
This time around, Sportsbook.com, Olympic, and MVP are all offering lines. All three books are top shelf, so shop around for the best number. Only MVP is offering finishing props, however.
Sudo/Brown
Sudo comes in with a wealth of experience, enough to slay UFC rookie Brown. I'm just not sure if Brown is tough enough to go the distance or not. Sudo is too expensive at -260. Pass.
Edwards/Franca
Good, close fight. Edwards can get the better of the stand-up with Franca, but I believe Franca is the more complete, more capable fighter. Edwards has yet to beat a top ten lightweight whereas Franca has been on a tear, losing only once - a bogus decision against Josh Thomson in January. Look for Franca to control position. Play Franca -130.
Lytle/Ghosn
Tiki Ghosn has no business in the UFC, sporting a 0-3 record and not beating anyone of note in other events. Lytle is the justifiable favorite, though who knows when Lytle finishes him? He can be passive, but Tiki likes to tear it up early, which could leave him open. I'd take a small shot at UN 2 +135.
Lawler/Diaz
Lawler is a hard-hitting, camera-ready slugger who has the tools to become champ. Diaz is a methodical fighter who may be able to get the better of Robbie on the ground. This is a shaky play, but I believe Diaz represents the best big 'dog prospect of the night. Other things at work may swing odds in Diaz' favor. Play Diaz +205.
Wiezorek/Shipp
Two rookies, with Wiezorek favored and Shipp having little chance due to his former affiliation with the Lion's Den. (Much like the Detroit Tigers, betting against the Den is a smooth system play.) Pass.
Sims/Kyle
Sims is coming in on a week's notice to fight Kyle. Should be a one-round massacre, as Sims is terrible even when he's training. Kyle will hammer him. Pass.
Cabbage/Arlovski
God, who knows? Cabbage was supposed to fight Kyle and Arlovski was supposed to fight Tim Sylvia for the heavyweight title. Unfortunately, Sylvia didn't pass the piss test. This is a last-minute change. Cabbage has a chin of iron, and Arlovski has fists of iron. It may last a few seconds, or these guys could stalemate each other. I lean toward Andrei because he was the one training for a title fight, but Cabbage has yet to be KOed by anyone. Pass.
Ortiz/Liddell
After dozens of excuses, Ortiz is finally forced to fight his former training partner Liddell. Why the hold-up? Liddell continually got the better of Ortiz in training, tooling him on the stand-up and stuffing his shots. Training is training, but that's certainly a bad omen.
Here's what it comes down to: Liddell stood up against Couture multiple times, and Couture is 10x the wrestler that Ortiz is. The X factor here is that both Couture and Quinton Jackson were able to clip Liddell on the feet and wear him down to the point where they could take a successful shot.
Ortiz cannot do this. He shies away from exchanges and knows all about Chuck's power from their training. Ortiz' only advantage is cardio conditioning, but in a three-round fight, I would expect that Liddell worked hard on this angle.
Fact is, Ortiz avoided Liddell to the point where it came down to either fighting him or quitting the sport. He tried every trick in the book to ignore the match-up. He claimed non-existent injuries, movie obligations, and, "best" of all, even said that Liddell "needed to be built up more" before getting a shot at him. Ortiz then helpfully suggested rematching Guy Mezger (a fight no one wants to see again) or Frank Shamrock (who hates UFC brass and hasn't fought seriously in years).
Belligerent Tito even said before the Couture fight that Liddell was next, "win or lose." Of course, Ortiz expected to ace old man Randy, and then run off for more movies, stalling until Chuck disappeared. When that didn't happen, all of a sudden Tito "needed to rematch Randy" before fighting Chuck.
I could write a f'n book on Tito's crap. He wants *nothing* to do with Chuck, and now he expects people to lend him support.
At the weigh-ins, the normally mouthy Tito kept quiet, while Liddell was all smiles. I think they both know what's coming.
I LOVE Chuck in this fight. He's still available at +145. Take it. Take it. Take it. Play Liddell +145
Good luck, guys. Should be a great show.
This time around, Sportsbook.com, Olympic, and MVP are all offering lines. All three books are top shelf, so shop around for the best number. Only MVP is offering finishing props, however.
Sudo/Brown
Sudo comes in with a wealth of experience, enough to slay UFC rookie Brown. I'm just not sure if Brown is tough enough to go the distance or not. Sudo is too expensive at -260. Pass.
Edwards/Franca
Good, close fight. Edwards can get the better of the stand-up with Franca, but I believe Franca is the more complete, more capable fighter. Edwards has yet to beat a top ten lightweight whereas Franca has been on a tear, losing only once - a bogus decision against Josh Thomson in January. Look for Franca to control position. Play Franca -130.
Lytle/Ghosn
Tiki Ghosn has no business in the UFC, sporting a 0-3 record and not beating anyone of note in other events. Lytle is the justifiable favorite, though who knows when Lytle finishes him? He can be passive, but Tiki likes to tear it up early, which could leave him open. I'd take a small shot at UN 2 +135.
Lawler/Diaz
Lawler is a hard-hitting, camera-ready slugger who has the tools to become champ. Diaz is a methodical fighter who may be able to get the better of Robbie on the ground. This is a shaky play, but I believe Diaz represents the best big 'dog prospect of the night. Other things at work may swing odds in Diaz' favor. Play Diaz +205.
Wiezorek/Shipp
Two rookies, with Wiezorek favored and Shipp having little chance due to his former affiliation with the Lion's Den. (Much like the Detroit Tigers, betting against the Den is a smooth system play.) Pass.
Sims/Kyle
Sims is coming in on a week's notice to fight Kyle. Should be a one-round massacre, as Sims is terrible even when he's training. Kyle will hammer him. Pass.
Cabbage/Arlovski
God, who knows? Cabbage was supposed to fight Kyle and Arlovski was supposed to fight Tim Sylvia for the heavyweight title. Unfortunately, Sylvia didn't pass the piss test. This is a last-minute change. Cabbage has a chin of iron, and Arlovski has fists of iron. It may last a few seconds, or these guys could stalemate each other. I lean toward Andrei because he was the one training for a title fight, but Cabbage has yet to be KOed by anyone. Pass.
Ortiz/Liddell
After dozens of excuses, Ortiz is finally forced to fight his former training partner Liddell. Why the hold-up? Liddell continually got the better of Ortiz in training, tooling him on the stand-up and stuffing his shots. Training is training, but that's certainly a bad omen.
Here's what it comes down to: Liddell stood up against Couture multiple times, and Couture is 10x the wrestler that Ortiz is. The X factor here is that both Couture and Quinton Jackson were able to clip Liddell on the feet and wear him down to the point where they could take a successful shot.
Ortiz cannot do this. He shies away from exchanges and knows all about Chuck's power from their training. Ortiz' only advantage is cardio conditioning, but in a three-round fight, I would expect that Liddell worked hard on this angle.
Fact is, Ortiz avoided Liddell to the point where it came down to either fighting him or quitting the sport. He tried every trick in the book to ignore the match-up. He claimed non-existent injuries, movie obligations, and, "best" of all, even said that Liddell "needed to be built up more" before getting a shot at him. Ortiz then helpfully suggested rematching Guy Mezger (a fight no one wants to see again) or Frank Shamrock (who hates UFC brass and hasn't fought seriously in years).
Belligerent Tito even said before the Couture fight that Liddell was next, "win or lose." Of course, Ortiz expected to ace old man Randy, and then run off for more movies, stalling until Chuck disappeared. When that didn't happen, all of a sudden Tito "needed to rematch Randy" before fighting Chuck.
I could write a f'n book on Tito's crap. He wants *nothing* to do with Chuck, and now he expects people to lend him support.
At the weigh-ins, the normally mouthy Tito kept quiet, while Liddell was all smiles. I think they both know what's coming.
I LOVE Chuck in this fight. He's still available at +145. Take it. Take it. Take it. Play Liddell +145
Good luck, guys. Should be a great show.
